After a poor Friday night at the Breeders Cup, the tips recovered on Saturday afternoon on our shores and in the evening back at the Breeders Cup.
The Melbourne Cup is run at 4am on Tuesday morning, so here is a preview of the race.
Japanese raider Admire Rakti will head the market after winning the Caulfield Cup. Only eleven horses have completed the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup, the last one being Ethereal in 2001. The step up in trip is a concern, as he has only won once over the distance from three; that win coming February 2013 and nothing of note has come from that race. The favourite has won 35 times and placed 72 times in the race, but to win this race he would need to be at his best and have the tactics right.
Johnny Murtagh has two runners in the race, one of which is Ebor winner Mutual Regard. If he can replicate the Ebor run then he has a very strong chance to win this race. His jockey on the day is Damien Oliver who has won the race three times, so he knows his way around the Flemington track. However horses to have their first run in Australia in this race don’t tend to fair well. From a home stand point he could be worth a fancy. The other Royal Diamond isn’t without a chance.
Only two eight year olds have won the race, the last one back in 1938, but Red Cadeaux has ran in the race three times in the past. On two occasions he has finished second and should go well again as trainer Ed Dunlop has targeted this race. This international globetrotter isn’t one to easily discount.
There are four four-year-olds in the race. However I think Au Revoir has little chance, unlike the other three. Signoff and Lucia Valentina both have course form too. History doesn’t look good for the mare Lucia Valentina, as only two four-year-old mares have won the race in the last 30 years. I think the step up in trip will boost Signoff (7/1) and he is the horse to beat. A similar case can be offered towards German horse Protectionist, who has won over 1m7f, so this trip shouldn’t be a problem, but preference sides with Signoff.
At bigger prices Who Shot Thebarman, who has won over the distance, has strong each way claims. Brambles (66/1) is a horse who has looked like he would relish a longer trip and could be the front-runner on the day, one at a big price to consider.
1st – Signoff
2nd – Protectionist
3rd – Brambles
4th – Red Cadeaux
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