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DAILY BLOG: Monday 24th November 2014

Afternoon People,
Overall, it was a cracking weekend for me, mostly because of my 56/1 winner but I had great success on the boxing and did my usual 'big bet' on Anthony Joshua inside rounds 1&2. I had a couple of small BTTS&Win accumulators yesterday but they didn't win but if you had picked Midtjylland, Girona and Catania as a Treble which would have got you about 5/1 then you would've won as all three sides won to nil. So if you don't fancy the BTTS&Win treble then select as win only as I'm good at correctly the correct side to win, I just need to get the 'weaker side' to score in the BTTS&Win market.

Don't Forget People, Mix 'n' Match with your own tips.....

ASTON VILLA V SOUTHAMPTON
Aston Villa are 11/1 for BTTS&WIN tonight? There is a probably a reason for such a high price. I would put it down to them scoring just five goals this season (even Burnley have scored 8). For me, Villa could be 80/1 for BTTS&Win but this is not going to happen. Philippe Senderos, Ron Vlaar and Nathan Baker are all out so who is going to defend for them?! I can see Southampton scoring quite a few goals tonight so it is the goal market where I'm going to focus my attention. Corals are offering 10/11 on the Saints hitting two goals and I think this is a really good price. Although they have netted six goals away from home this season, I can see Pelle and Co. breaching that Villa defence on more than one occasion. Captain Jack has already mentioned Villa winning to nil at 9/4 and this should be snapped up too although I'm not a fan of teams winning to nil. Southampton have a couple of injuries confirmed with Jay Rodriguez and  James Ward-Prowse definitely out but Ronald Koeman has a selection headache up front with Shane Long chomping at the bit to be in the first eleven after his brace for Ireland. Stan James are offering 7/2 that Southampton win both halves whilst the same bookie is offering 9/5 on the Saints scoring in both halves. I really like the look of Pelle / Southampton win double at 9/4 (Bet Fred).
TIP:
SOUTHAMPTON WIN @4/5
SOUTHAMPTON TO SCORE 2+ GOALS @10/11

GENOA V PALERMO
Genoa are 13/8 to score 2+ goals which on paper looks a cracking price but after drilling down into the statistics, I can see they have only scored 4 goals at home and 11 away from home. Their home form is a bit flaky where they have picked up just 7 points from 5 games so far. Genoa's leading scorer Matri has hit 5 goals this season including two from the spot.

Palermo have shipped 10 goals away from home already so Genoa scoring two against them is a real possibility in my opinion. Palmero are in good form having won 3 of their last 5 games. Dybala has netted 4 goals for them this season.

I think this game is likely to end 2-1 to Genoa so BTTS&Win for Genoa and Over 1.5 Team Goals is definitely a likely outcome.
TIP: GENOA TO SCORE 2+ GOALS AT 13/8 WITH CORAL

CONSIDERATION TIP: Nancy to score 2+ goals at 2/1. Great Value as they've scored 11 goals in 4 games. They're 6/1 for BTTS&Win tonight

Fun £1 BTTS&WIN Treble:
Lok Moscow, Nancy and Genoa 160/1

Fun £1 Acca-Attack
Southampton Win, Genoa O1.5TG, Nancy BTTS&WIN, Lok Moscow Win = 113/1 with Coral

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COMMENTS

  • captain jack
    24-11-2014
    16:13

    Sports Tipster

    I am also not a big fan of backing teams to win to nil but on this occasion I feel the odds of 9/5 justify my bet.
    I understand the fear that one goal can lose the bet.

    But lets look on the bright side and hope all bets are successful

  • Maestro Mick
    24-11-2014
    18:45

    I think Southampton are nailed on tonight but odds-on away from home sucks.
    I prefer a Southampton handicap much more than them to win to nil. Although Villa have only scored 5 goals all season whilst Southampton have only conceded 5, I get too nervous on that win-to-nil scenario.

    For a nice 13/2 TV double I also prefer Genoa.

    Southampton -1 [Paddy Power 2/1]
    Genoa Paddy Power [23/20]

    Here’s to a Villa 0 Southampton 2 scoreline for us all!

    Maestro Mick 🙂

  • captain jack
    24-11-2014
    20:15

    The two bets I really hate are win to nil and first goal scorer as your bet could be down after a minute or so.

    Also going under 2.5 if there is an early goal is not ideal.

    But as you say sometimes the price dictates

  • Marius
    25-11-2014
    9:14

    I am fresh at betting, but won yesterday by picking BTTS on Saints match. The rule I followed is that too long streaks are suspicious: no goal conceded – 4 for Saints before the Villa match.
    Anyway thanks for your inputs.

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