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Daily Blog: 30/11/19 (MK: -2.76)

Saturday’s are always busy and here are a couple of eye-catching games.

Wigan vs Reading (15:00)

Wigan are winless in six, while Reading have lost their last two games 1-0.

The visitors were denied a point when Jack Harrison struck late on for Leeds at the Mad Stad on Tuesday night.

Mark Bowen’s side had been in good form until last weekend and the change in system to three at the back had caught a few opposing sides out.

His counterpart Paul Cook is coming under fire and the Latics need an upturn in form, but they need to hold on to leads.

At Stoke, they lead 1-0 before succumbing to a Mame Diouf goal in the 93rd minute to lose 2-1, while in midweek, they twice lead at Millwall before drawing 2-2.

Four defeats in six (two draws) won’t make Cook’s life easy and having slipped into the drop zone, the pressure will continue to mount considering both Stoke and Barnsley have changed managers already this season.

For me, this could be quite a spicy affair.

Wigan 20+ Booking Points at home: 5/8
Wigan 20+ Booking Points all season: 11/18

Reading 20+ Booking Points on the road: 7/8
Reading 20+ Booking Points all season: 10/18

Just to note: some sites have Wigan getting 20 booking points in the Stoke game. One came in 90 minutes with one after the full-time whistle, so it wouldn’t have counted towards a bet, so I have excluded that.

It’s a combined 12/16 for these sides home and away records, so that’s a pretty high figure.

With Reading just two points ahead of Wigan and not out of a relegation battle, then these two teams could be embroiled.

 Their last meeting saw each side pick up 30 booking points with 60 in the game, so if this follows a similar pattern, it can only mean cards.

Jeremy Simpson is in charge. His last four games have seen at least 40 booking points – his last saw 55 with Boro having a man dismissed against Hull.

He is a high cards issuer and with these two sides struggling then he could find himself busy filing a pretty length report.

Both Teams Over 1.5 Cards (11/5 – William Hill – Build Your Odds)

Football Shortlist

Derby vs QPR – 6+ Derby Corners (5/4 – Sky Bet)

QPR’s season has hit the buffers with no wins in six (D2, L4) and despite Derby’s patchy form, they’ve won their last five at home.

The Rams recent upturn in form at Pride Park will have slightly helped the feeling towards Philip Cocu, especially with their four most recent wins have seen them keep a clean sheet.

The 29/20 on the hosts definitely appeals and the home crowd will be up for this as Wayne Rooney is likely to be in the dugout in his ‘player coach’ role.

However, if the visitors prove stubborn, look towards Derby corners. The Rams have taken 6+ in 7/9 home games, so that could prove an angle of interest.

Salernitana vs Ascoli (17:30) – BTTS (17/20 – William Hill)

An interesting one here with the 10 of Salernitana’s last 11 home games have seen BTTS.

Ascoli sit higher in the league table, yet are 3/1 here despite the hosts having won just one of their last five here at Stadio Arechi.

Each of the visitors last five games have seen BTTS, while on their travels, it’s 7/11.

 Thrown in the fact that each of the last three H2Hs have all seen BTTS, then that has to be factored into this game. It could be worth letting it go in-play then backing it when it hits EVS or odds-against if it does.

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