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Daily Blog: 23/11/19 (MK: +0.24)

A few days off with the lack of good football to bet on, but Tuesday did see a winner as Exeter beat Cambridge 1-0 to land our 23/20 shout.

Plenty to get stuck into today and here’s the main bet in League 1.


Peterborough vs Burton (15:00)

Peterborough are 7/5 to win this home game and considering they’ve won five of their last six in the league here, then you wouldn’t put it past them.

Here at London Road, they’ve won five of eight, and drawn twice, since losing their first home game of the season to Fleetwood.

Posh are the highest scorers across the Football League with 39 goals in 17 games – 23 of those goals have been in home games.

Burton are in 15th on arrival. They got a confidence-boosting FA Cup replay win against League 2 Salford on Tuesday. That ended a four-game run without a win in all competitions.

Nigel Clough’s men are known for a strong defence, but in some away games this season, they’ve lacked that.

They’ve conceded two or more goals in five of eight away games, including four of the last five, which saw a 4-1 defeat at Fleetwood and a 2-2 draw with Doncaster.

12 of the 15 goals they’ve conceded this season have been on their travels, so you’ve got a side strong at home that scores freely, against a side that does concede on the road.

That means I’ll be looking towards Posh goals. Mo Eisa and Ivan Toney are currently joint-top scorers in the league with 12 apiece and both will feel confident of adding to that.

While Marcus Maddison isn’t far behind on nine showing the riches they have when it comes to the attacking third.

Peterborough scored three in a losing effort earlier in the month at Blackpool (4-3) and so far they’ve scored 2+ goals in 13/17 league games.

As Posh look to reduce the gap on those in the automatic spots, look at them bagging at least a couple here.

Over 1.5 Peterborough Goals (EVS – Bet365)


Football Shortlist

Man City vs Chelsea (17:30)

It’s one of those games where we all say BTTS & O2.5 Goals (4/5) looks banker material. Even Over 3.5 Goals (11/10) appeals given that neither of these sides are strong at the back.

Those are the safer options along with looking towards goalscorers. Sergio Aguero has 15 goals against Chelsea – one of his preferred opponents, while you expect Christian Pulisic to pop up in an area to pose a threat to this vulnerable City backline.

I’d also be tempted to back a few wild correct scores with quid stakes just for some fun at big prices:

3-2 City (20/1 – Bet365)
3-3 (50/1 – Sky Bet)

Even 3-2 Chelsea (45/1 Bet Victor) could be taken. This is just based on the open nature of what could prove to be a Premier League classic and two sides that like to attack.

Following Chelsea’s 4-4 in the Champions League against Ajax shows how Man City can expose them, while Frank Lampard will look to hit City on the counter, just like Liverpool did the other week.

Goals, goals and even more goals, so BTTS & O2.5, plus a couple of correct scores for fun.

 

Angers v Nimes (19:00) – Angers to win (3/4)

Angers are third in Ligue 1, they’ve won five of seven at home and host a side winless away.

Not only that but on home form alone, Angers sit third in the Expected Goals tables, while when you look at the away Expected Goals, Nimes rank third-worst overall.

The visitors have failed to score in four of their seven away games, so it could be worth looking at the hosts in a narrow win. Angers have won with Under 4.5 Goals in four of their five home wins – that’s 19/20 with Coral.

 

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