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Daily Blog: 16/11/19 (MK: +0.51)

It was a comfortable win for Italy in Bosnia. Three goals scored and a clean sheet, but sadly no penalty for Jorginho to take.

Today, it’s back to the tried and tested in the International football markets.


Austria vs North Macedonia (19:45)

This game in Group G could settle the top two places. Poland are already of to Euro 2020 and Austria will probably only need a point from their last two games to join them.

However, it’s North Macedonia who are chasing Austria, so a win for the visitors would take this to the final group matches.

So if the visitors sit deep and try to hit their hosts on the break, then we could see a tight and niggly game.

Already North Macedonia have picked up 265 booking points in their eight games, which is an average of 33.1.

In five of their eight games, they’ve collected 40 or more booking points with the games in Slovenia being a standout – they managed four yellow cards in the opening 20 minutes.

Their last away games was in Poland. It ended in defeat with them getting six yellow or 60 booking points.

Austria have had 180 booking points – an average of 22.5 per game. Six of their eight matches have seen them collect at least 20 booking points too.

Already you’ve got a home side averaging two yellows and the visitors three, so you’d be imaging around 50+ booking points for a sound bet.

But Sky Bet have 40+ priced up quite generously.

A familiar face is in the middle. If this was a Premier League match, I wouldn’t be getting carried away with cards in a Michael Oliver, but on the continent, he’s a different beast.

His three matches in Champions League and Europa League this season have all seen at least five cautions – booking points totals of 105, 50 & 80 – the latter being Barca’s 0-0 draw with Slavia Prague.

While in two Euro 2020 qualifiers, he’s dished out 11 cards with five in Sweden v Romania and six in Norway v Sweden, so an average of 5.5.

Two teams with something at stake and both have issues with discipline, so expect cards at more than a fair price.

40+ Booking Points (10/11 – Sky Bet)


Football Shortlist

Port Vale vs Carlisle – Port Vale -2 Corner Handicap (21/20)

Vale are unbeaten at home this season and host a managerless Carlisle side.

The Valiants are pretty good for corners here at Vale Park. Some of their corner counts at full-time have been:

8-2 vs Cambridge
8-5 vs Plymouth
9-3 vs Morecambe
14-6 vs Oldham

It’s usually a case of late goals or second-half goals winning games for John Askey’s side this season, so if Carlisle can keep it tight, they could see Vale attack with plenty of width and bombard their box.

In eight away games, Carlisle have only taken more than five corners in one game, while their last away game saw them take 5, but lose the corner count by three – perfect for this bet.

This bet has won in 6/8 Carlisle away games, so back Vale to take three or more corners. You can back -2 Asian Corner Handicap at around 10/11.

 

Blackpool vs AFC Wimbledon – Over 9 Corners (5/6)

It’s odds-on this but it does look quite decent.

AFC Wimbledon away games have reached double figures on 7/8
Blackpool home games have reached double figures on 5/8

With the Seasiders having ambitions of promotion under Simon Grayson then this is a game they must be looking to win.

Some of their team totals for corners have been excellent, which only help this bet – 8 against Peterborough, 9 vs Rotherham and 7 vs MK Dons for example.

You’d expect the hosts to have the majority of the ball with the Wombles doing plenty of defending, which could result in that high corner count.

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