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Daily Blog: 15/11/19 (MK: +1.01)

Anthony Taylor delivered with a 95th-minute caution to take the Turkey v Iceland booking points total to 50 for our 11/8 bet.

Tonight, I’m taking a bit of a risk with half a point on a goalscorer.

Bosnia vs Italy (19:45)

Italy have a perfect record in qualifying with eight wins from eight. They’ve scored 25 and conceded just three proving the old Italy is making a return.

Bosnia are 4th in the group and need two wins from two while hoping Finland lose both matches, even though the Fins host Liechtenstein tonight.

They’ve conceded 14 goals in their eight games and with how Italy have been scoring freely, there could be an angle to take.

Chelsea’s Jorginho has netted twice and both have come from the penalty spot against Greece and Finland respectively.

It’s worth noting that Bosnia conceded penalties in home games to Armenia and Greece earlier in this campaign, so with Italy having a higher calibre of player, then we could see a penalty awarded, which would be taken by Jorginho.

Swiss official Sandro Scharer is a fan of cards. He’s shown a red card in his last four in all competitions with booking points of 115, 75, 110 & 85, so it might be worth looking towards those booking points.

Sky Bet have 50+ Booking Points at 5/4, which does appeal, but the 31-year-old whistler does have a tendency to point to the spot too.

His last Euro 2020 qualifier was Croatia’s 1-1 draw in Azerbaijan where Luka Modric netted from 12 yards, while his last outing, which came in the Europa League, also saw a penalty.

If the Chelsea man plays, then he’ll take it and he’ll hopefully show the composure he did when scoring a double against Ajax.

Jorginho to score anytime (13/2 – Betway – 0.5pt)

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