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Daily Blog: 09/11/19 (MK: +0.81)

AaB delivered the required number of corners for an 11/10 in their 3-3 draw at Randers. They did win the corner count too for those that took them at 5/4 to do so.

It’s FA Cup weekend, so there’ll be a few shocks along the way. I’m targeting a match in the Championship that I think is priced up wrong.


Birmingham City v Fulham (15:00)

Birmingham are a point behind Fulham in the Championship table and Pep Clotet’s side have been in decent shape, especially here at St Andrew’s.

Fulham are chalked up as 7/5 favourite with Birmingham around 21/10 and the draw at 5/2.

Given all recent form, I want to take those prices on. I saw Fulham a couple of weeks ago. They were pretty on the eye in possession but failed to create anything of note.

It was the game they lost 2-0 at Stoke with the Potters managing to remain in a disciplined shape and that’s something that the Cottagers will encounter this afternoon.

If they found it difficult to break down a side struggling then this Birmingham side will be even harder.

Scott Parker’s men arrive in the second city with just one win in five, while they’ve failed to score in three of their last four.

Last weekend they lost 3-0 at home to Hull, which will have surprised many. If Fulham line up like they did at Stoke then this should be Birmingham’s to win.

Not only did Fulham fail to create anything against Stoke, they were far too expansive leaving their defenders exposed.

Birmingham may not commit too many men forward, but they did have quality in the final third with Lukasz Jutkiewicz, while defender Kristian Pedersen has two in two, so may prove a threat from set pieces.

The Blues went 1-0 up inside three minutes at Cardiff but slipped to a 4-2 defeat. It was a bright start and they had chances whilst in the lead to extend it, but failed to take them.

That was on the road, so I’m happy to forgive that. Look at their home form and they’re flying.

If the league was based on home form alone, Birmingham would sit third behind Preston and Cardiff on 16 points.

Their only defeat here came against second-placed Preston (1-0), while they’ve won five and drawn the other.

Clotet’s side may not the prettiest to watch, but they’re effective. That’s what you need to get you out of this league.

This might be harsh, but I feel Fulham are a Championship Arsenal and are vulnerable on the road.

The defeats at Barnsley (23rd) and Stoke (24th) prove that, plus they drew 0-0 at Middlesbrough (22nd), even though they played with ten men for a large part of that game.

I’m have to go for something pro-Birmingham. That 11/5 is massively tempting, but for this, head to the Draw No Bet market for an odds-against price.

Birmingham Draw No Bet (13/10 – Marathon)


Football Shortlist

QPR vs Middlesbrough – QPR to win (10/11 – Betfred)

Boro are deep in trouble and Jonathan Woodgate’s short tenure is coming under fire from the Riverside faithful.

They haven’t won since a 1-0 home win in September against Reading. Since then they’ve lost five of eight matches, plus they’ve failed to score in their last four.

One of them came at home to Fulham. The Cottagers had their keeper sent-off after 17 minutes, but Boro didn’t register a shot on target until the 93rd minute. Struggling.

Woodgate’s men rank 24th for goals, 21st for shots on target and 22nd for expected goals – that shows how poorly they’re doing in the final third.

Mark Warburton’s side have lost their last two, but have been in decent nick this season generally.

They lost to Brentford 3-1 in their last home game with the Bees second goal a controversial penalty.

One thing they’ve done is score goals. Jordan Hugill and Nakhi Wells will keep this Boro backline busy. I just can’t look past a home win.

 

Collerense vs Andratx (16:15) – Over 2.5 Goals (3/5 – Bet365)

This is the Spanish Tercera Division Group 11 and I’m dipping into a new database I’m using for certain stats.

Over 2.5 Goals looks a solid play in this game and that looks a fair price considering Collerense home games are 5/5, while it’s the same for Andratx away.

Collerense home games have seen: 5, 3, 4, 5 & 4 goals.
Andratx away games have seen 4, 4, 5, 5 & 3 goals.

The visitors games have all seen BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals.

It could be one to catch on the in-play too with quite a few late goals.

                                                                                                                                   

Grand Slam of Darts

No outright pick, but the first group games are played today.

I’d be looking at Dave Chisnall to win and most 180s against Jamie Hughes at 6/4 with Sky Bet.

Even though this is going to be a home event for Hughes, he’s struggled of late with reports suggesting he’s got some sort of back issue.

It’s hard to look past Chisnall because he’s finally returned to form. He reached the World Series of Darts semi-final last weekend only to lose to Danny Noppert in a deciding leg, despite looking in control of proceedings.

Over that weekend, he threw 22 180s, two more than eventual winner MvG to show his scoring power is back. The confidence and swagger is back too. I’m expecting a big weekend from Chisnall, and he can make a winning start and silence the Wolverhampton crowd.

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