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Daily Blog: 08/11/19 (MK: -0.29)

The Europa League delivered a 13/10 winner with both sides having over 1 card in Gladbach vs Roma. The other bet in the preview copped too with Roma picking up the most booking points at 11/10.

The note was about corners in Espanyol v Ludogorets. The Bulgarian side finished with nine men, which helped Espanyol rack up the corners – 12 in total.

I’m taking a bit of a chance on this bet, but the stats prove it’s got a great chance.


Randers vs AaB (18:00) 

We take a trip to the Danish Superliga for a clash between two mid-table sides. Randers are a place above and a point ahead of AaB.

The hosts are in great shape here at Cepheus Park having won four on the spin. They’ve recorded two 2-0 wins and two 2-1 victories, so popular scorelines to potentially follow.

AaB aren’t doing too badly on the road. They’ve won three of their last five, which started with a 5-0 win at Horsens and more recently 2-0 and 3-1 wins so that instantly leads you towards goals.

And backing Overs wouldn’t look too bad on both sides recent form, but I’m leaning towards backing corners here.

Randers have taken 26 corners in seven home games – an average of 3.7 per game.
AaB have recorded 46 corners in eight away games – an average of 5.75 per game.

Those figures suggest the visitors are worth looking towards for a bet here.

Despite having home advantage, Randers have only won the corner count in one game (6-2 vs Silkeborg). In five games on home soil, they’ve taken fewer corners, including their most recent two.

In those two games, the corners counts have finished 2-5 and 2-4 showing they don't take many corners.

The visitors have taken more corners in six of eight away games than their hosts, so the prices do have some scope in them.

AaB Most Corners (5/4 SkyBet) appeals on that basis and it stands out as a better bet than backing the hosts at EVS.

I was very close to going for that, but have decided to go for a slightly shorter price, which is still odds-against.

So far this season, AaB have taken 5+ corners in 6/8 away games, and in the reverse fixture, they recorded eight.

These two bets both appeal, but I’m happy to back the visitors’ totals.

5+ AaB Corners (11/10 – Sky Bet)


One to Note

Real Sociedad vs Leganes (20:00)

Sociedad are joint-top with Barca and Real Madrid on 22 points. A win here against bottom of the table Leganes will see them go top temporarily.

I’m quite interested in their 3/4 price with Betfair. That’s mainly because Leganes are poor.

In five away games, they’ve managed to pick up one point (at Valencia) and only managed to score twice. They’ve actually failed to score in their last three away games, and at Real Madrid, they were 3-0 down within 25 minutes.

This Sociedad side could have plenty of joy. Willian Jose has scored in three home games this season, plus he’s scored in two of the last three meetings between the sides.

He’s definitely worth looking at scoring, but him to score in a Sociedad double (21/10 Paddy Power) makes a tempting price.

You can say the same thing about Mikel Oyarzabal. He’s got two in three too against Leganes. Plus, he’s got four for the season. It’s 23/10 on him to score in a home win.

Either of those two bets would be the way to go, while in-play Sociedad are always a good side to watch for in the corners market.

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