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Daily Blog: 05/11/17 (MK –0.38)

A disappointing effort yesterday, which wasn’t helped by the early forced sub to Derby’s defence but they were poor throughout.

Kicking myself in part because my first port of call in that game was looking at Derby Over 1.5 Goals, which was EVS, but felt that if they scored twice they’d win – how wrong could I have been?

What a weekend we’ve already had with some top racing from the Charlie Hall to the Breeders Cup, some excellent darts continues in the World Series and today it turns up another notch.

Today’s a day you want to sit back and enjoy!


Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden (12:30)

Holstein Kiel aren’t messing about! They are looking for consecutive promotions and currently sit second, three points off top spot.

In contrast, Dynamo Dresden are hovering at the wrong end of the table but are just outside of the relegation spots.Marvin Ducksch is the league’s top scorer with nine goals for Holstein but he’s odds-on to score and considering he’s only seen out the full 90 minutes on six occasions

Marvin Ducksch is the league’s top scorer with nine goals for Holstein but he’s odds-on to score and considering he’s only seen out the full 90 minutes on six occasions, so at the prices, he’s a little too short despite his exploits.

Teammate Dominick Drexler is the joint-third top scorer in the league with seven to his name from an advanced midfield role. He has six in his last six games after netting in the cup game against Bundesliga opposition in the shape of Mainz.

Given he’s seen out the full 90 minutes nine times this season then he’s more likely to influence the game. A couple of his goals have come from the spot, so that’s something we’d have onside.

The 27-year-old has also registered three assists but teammate Steven Lewerenz has one more with four proving they play attacking football and are well worth their position in the league.

Dresden have conceded 20 goals and have only kept two clean sheets this season. Going into this game the two sides they shutout sit 13th and 16th proving they are capable against sides around them but may struggle here.

Two conceded at Nurnberg in their last away game plus they’ve conceded three at Darmstadt and at Bochum already this season proves they do struggle defensively.

They aren’t helped here by the suspension of defender Philip Heise, as he’s also chipped in with a couple of goals. But in midfield, they are a little light with Hartmann and Aosman injured.

I can’t escape the home win here but do look at goals and possibly a home win and both teams scoring but I’m taking Drexler to score to continue his form in front of goal against this leaky defence.

Dominick Drexler to Score (6/4 – Bet365 – 0.5pt)


Here are the rest of the ramblings:

Man City vs Arsenal (14:15)

Surely Man City run riot against what can be a shoddy defence? Last season’s games saw Leroy Sane and Theo Walcott scored in both but it’s the former I’d be looking at to score here given the threats at Guardiola’s disposal.

Man City and BTTS is another option. It’s landed in both Champions League meetings against Napoli plus they’ve conceded two to both Stoke and West Brom in the Premier League, who don’t have players like Sanchez, Ozil and Lacazette to call upon, so I do believe Arsenal will score.

I was looking at past H2Hs and noticed a few recurring players picking up yellow cards. One of the more obvious players in this category is Fernandinho (2/1 – Unibet). He’s received four yellows in seven Premier League games against Arsenal.

But one of the more surprising names on the list was David Silva (9/2 – Unibet), who has four yellows in eight Premier League games against Arsenal proving he does put his foot in. When looking at teams he’s been booked against showed a bit of a pattern – Manchester United, Barca (CL), Arsenal, Burnley, Everton, Liverpool and Bournemouth. When you consider five of those are ‘big’ sides then it’s this sort of game where he picks up his cautions.

Goals would be the main play, but two cards options there to consider but sit back and marvel at the football on offer.

 

Villarreal vs Malaga (17:30)

Malaga recorded their first win of the season last weekend against Celta Vigo through a scrappy goal and a penalty. I was far from impressed and this is a tough trip to make.

Villarreal did play on Thursday night in Prague but have a decent squad to cope with the demands. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last four home games and with Malaga having failed to score in all five away games this season then the play here would be Villarreal to Win to Nil (7/4).

 

It’s the Superclasico in Argentina

River Plate vs Boca Juniors (21:05)

Seven games in and Boca Juniors look to have the title sewn up already. Yesterday saw some of their challengers slip up and they come into this with a six-point lead already.

They have a 100% record plus they boast both the best defence and the best attack, so it could prove difficult for River Plate to break them down.

River had been focused on winning the Copa Libertadores but fellow Argentinian club Lanus dashed their hopes earlier in the week.

River Plate won the first leg 1-0 at home and were 2-0 up in the second leg by the 23 minute but capitulated to lose 4-3 on aggregate, so they have work to do in the league.

Boca have conceded just once in seven games and I can’t say River have been particularly fluent from what I’ve seen. Unders on the goals is generally a good play in this sort of high atmosphere fixture.

Seven of the last nine meetings in all competitions have been Under 2.5 with BTTS No with plenty of 0-0 and 1-0 scores.

For that reason, I’d be looking at Boca to Win to Nil (10/3) or splitting your stakes by backing them to win 1-0 or 2-0.


Darts – Live on ITV4

James Wade vs Dimitri van den Bergh

The rising star of Belgian darts put in his best TV performance last night when beating Raymond van Barneveld 6-4.

Van den Bergh averaged 102 and scored heavily in the early part of the game. Maybe the pressure of the situation got to him in the latter part but he got over the line eventually and a replication of that performance would see him challenge James Wade.

The Machine was 5-2 before Simon Stevenson won the next three legs to force a decider but a tidy enough deciding leg saw him win through.

Wade only averaged 93, so that gives the Belgian a squeak here but I’d be looking at maximums.

Van de Bergh threw two on Friday night when romping past Michael 6-1 and he hit five last night against RvB. Wade did hit three in his game last night but isn’t the heaviest of scorers, so this is a department the Belgian could make count, therefore, Van den Bergh Most 180s (10/11) looks fairly priced and to be honest I couldn’t put you off the odds-against price on a van den Bergh victory.

 

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