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Daily Blog: 03/11/19 (MK: -0.09)

The first poor day in a while with Port Vale collecting two cards for the bet, but Crewe failing to get any – that’s not what you call a derby!!

I thought the BTTS had copped in the Torino v Juventus game until VAR confirmed an offside in stoppage time.

I’m sticking with cards with a game in La Liga.


Celta Vigo vs Getafe (17:30)

Two teams with poor discipline and my favourite Spanish referee combined can only mean a high card count.

Getafe arrive here having picked up the most yellow cards in La Liga (40), plus one red, while Celta have 26 yellows and the joint-most reds (3).

You just look at the booking points in the games so far between the sides and see why cards are expected.

Celta Vigo Team Home Booking Points: 50, 10, 90, 20, 0 & 75
Celta Vigo Total Home Booking Points: 95, 30, 110, 70, 50 & 95

Getafe Team Away Booking Points: 65, 60, 40, 40 & 30
Getafe Total Away Booking Points: 120, 140, 50, 85 & 50

There are some monumental totals in those Getafe games and they’ve picked up at least three cards in all away games so far. It’s no wonder that Sky Bet go 1/2 for 30+ Getafe Booking Points, while Bet365 are 2/5 for Over 2 Getafe Cards.

The team totals speak for themselves but when you add Antonio Mateu Lahoz into the mix then cards are guaranteed.

He’s shown 68 yellows and four reds in 11 games. In nine of those matches there have been at least four cautions.

His last four games have seen booking points totals of: 130, 90, 70 & 70.

That’s why most bookies are expecting a high card count. His last game saw Granada defeat Real Betis 1-0 with four cards shown in the first 29 minutes.

He loves an early card too:

Granada v Real Betis – 9th minute
Shakhtar Donetsk v Dinamo Zagreb – 7th minute
Poland v North Macedonia – 13th minute
Barcelona v Sevilla – 22nd minute

That just paints a bit of a picture about how early he reaches into his pocket. A card before 23:00 is 5/6 with Bet365 – standard price but usually a winner with Lahoz.

One thing that I could see is Over 0.5 Cards First 10 Minutes (7/2 – Bet365). It’s been a winner in his last two games, and it would have won when he took charge of Getafe v Bilbao – a fourth-minute card.

So, these two sides have a tendency to collect cards and a referee willing to show them.

Back cards in each half for both sides, especially with how early he dishes them out.

Celta Vigo Over 0.5 Cards in each half & Getafe Over 0.5 Cards in each half (19/10 – Bet Victor – 0.5pt)


One to Watch

Talleres v Newell’s Old Boys (18:30)

In Argentina most games are priced up odds-against for BTTS, but this could be an opportunity to take advantage.

Talleres’ last four at home have seen this outcome, while it’s 7/8 for Newell’s on their travels, including a 1-1 draw at Boca Juniors.

Their last four competitive meetings have all seen BTTS with 3-1, 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 scores, so take the 23/20 with Betfair on it happening once again.

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