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Daily Blog: 02/11/19 (MK: +0.91)

It’s a winning start to the month to continue the fine end to October. There were just 16 corners in our game with Rosenborg taking 10 and Strømsgodset six.  

You also may have seen ST is back on Twitter posting bets and he found a gem of a BTTS bet in Panama that landed at around 6/4. Keep an eye out for more of those.


Crewe vs Port Vale (15:00)

It’s a trip to Cheshire for today’s main bet as top of League 2 Crewe host Port Vale in something of a cross-County derby.

David Artell’s side are unbeaten in seven (W4, D3), and drew 0-0 in their last home game when Will Jaaskelainen saved a 97th-minute penalty to earn the point.

Port Vale arrive at Gresty Road in 11th place, unbeaten in three (W1, D2). Their last game was also goalless, but they did go to Valley Parade and beat Bradford with a late winner, so they’ve got form against the top sides in the league.

Last season saw the Valiants win both games 1-0 and the goals in those goals matches came in the 75th and 78th minutes respectively, so late drama could be expected.

However, I’m dipping back into the cards markets here because there is something that stands out with William Hill.

At the end of the day, this is a derby, so I’m expecting it to be a bit fiery, especially with Vale wanting to end Crewe’s unbeaten run.

So, I’m dipping my toe into the cards market. Port Vale have 29 yellows this season, while Crewe have 24, plus three reds.

The Railwaymen have picked up two or more cards in six of their eight home games.
The Valiants have picked up two or more cards in six of their eight away games.

 

Given that 20+ Booking Points Each Team is 11/10 on Sky Bet, then head to William Hill and back the cards there at an even bigger price.

The referee is Ross Joyce, who has shown 48 yellows and 1 red in 11 games, so that’s more than 4 cards per game on average.

He took charge of Port Vale’s 2-1 win over Forest Green earlier in the season and showed cautions to two Valiants – so he’s got form there.

I’m not too keen on him as a referee either. He’s too quick to whistle and then dish the cards out – that’s highlighted by his six cautions in Bradford 1-2 Man City U21s in the EFL Trophy.

I wouldn’t put you off the 20+ Booking Points Each Team given it’s landed in three of their last four league meetings, but so has this bet at an even better price.

Each Team Over 1 Card (21/10 – William Hill)


Football Shortlist

Arsenal vs Wolves – Over 1.5 Wolves Goals (12/5)

Yep, you’ve read that right. I’m backing Wolves goals at the Emirates. Unai Emery’s side can’t defend in truth and this counter-attacking visiting side can take full advantage.

Already this season, Spurs, Villa and Crystal Palace have all been to Arsenal and scored twice – two of them finished 2-2 with another ended 3-2 in the Gunners’ favour.

Wolves rested quite a few first-team players for their League Cup tie in midweek, so will have some fresh legs here.

They went to Everton and scored twice, while they shocked Man City at the Etihad with two late goals.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side can’t be ignored given Arsenal’s defence issues and you’d imagine players like Raul Jimenez, Diogo Jota and Adama Traore will capitalise.

 

Torino vs Juventus – BTTS (21/20)

Juventus may be top of Serie A but their defence hasn’t been keeping the clean sheets you’d expect.

Four of their last five games have resulted in 2-1 victories, while the other was a 1-1 draw away at Lecce.

The Old Lady are unbeaten in their last four away games too (W2, D2). All four of those have seen BTTS, so given it’s odds-against here, it looks rather appealing.

If you include Torino’s defeat against Wolves in Europa League qualifying, then five of their last six home games have seen BTTS.

Former West Ham man Simone Zaza and Andrea Belotti have been in the goals with the latter having five – the same as Cristiano Ronaldo.

With Torino’s home record, plus Juve’s recent porous defence, then this looks an opportunity to jump all over an odds-against BTTS similar to the one in La Liga the other night.

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